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See below for working papers. You can reach me here. I am always happy to chat, answer questions about data/methods, and discuss collaborations!
See below for working papers. You can reach me here. I am always happy to chat, answer questions about data/methods, and discuss collaborations!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in my papers do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, IMF management, or any other parties beyond myself and my co-authors. All errors are our own.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in my papers do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, IMF management, or any other parties beyond myself and my co-authors. All errors are our own.
Working Papers
Working Papers
Abstract. We quantify barriers to cross-border banking within the euro area and their consequences for credit allocation and output. Using loan-level data from the European credit registry (AnaCredit) and group structures (RIAD), we estimate barriers to relationship formation, loan pricing, and banks’ branching decisions at the country-pair level. We find that barriers to cross-border relationships between banks and firms and cross-border bank entry are large while wedges on interest rates and loan quantities are comparatively small. The estimated wedges are strongly associated with differences in national banking regulations, measured using a novel dataset on regulatory distances. We embed our estimates into a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks and firms subject to cross-border frictions in relationship formation, loan pricing, and bank entry. Partially relaxing frictions predicts sizable and heterogeneous output gains across euro area countries. These gains are primarily driven by increases in capital and labor rather than improvements in allocative efficiency..
Presentations. Urban Economics Association NA Meetings, Econometric Society DSE Conference, SED 2026, ECB*, International Finance Society*, Fed Board*, Georgetown*, IMF Macro-Finance Research Conference
Abstract. Leveraging project-level data from India and quasi-experimental variation in credit supply, we show firms expedite ongoing capital expenditure projects and start fewer projects when credit tightens. We rationalize our findings with a novel investment model featuring endogenous time to build. Tighter credit incentivizes firms to accelerate near-completion projects for faster cash flows while delaying early-stage projects, a mechanism borne out in the data. A quantitative model disciplined by our estimates shows endogenous time to build generates strong endogenous amplification and state-dependence of investment responses along the project maturity distribution. We illustrate implications for interest rate and tax policy.
Presentations. Central Bank of Brazil Annual Research Conference, Johns Hopkins SAIS, IMF-ER Summer Conference, SED Annual Meetings 2025, Western Finance Association Annual Meetings, IMF Macro-Finance Research Conference, IMF Research Department, STEG-CEPR, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria*, SED Winter Meetings 2024, Boston College, European Central Bank*, NBER Summer Institute, IMF, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Board, Cornerstone, McCombs School of Business of The University of Texas at Austin, Toulouse School of Economics, CREI-UPF, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Analysis Group
(with Rodolfo Rigato)
(with Rodolfo Rigato)
Abstract. We study the sensitivity of precautionary savings to consumption risk in standard heterogeneous-agent (HA) models and find it is strong relative to the data. Using variation in unemployment insurance (UI) generosity across U.S. states, we rule out savings responses larger than about 0.75% of annual income per 10 percentage-point increase in replacement rates. This bound is at odds with standard HA models but consistent with a model with present-biased households. Disciplining precautionary savings is policy-relevant: an estimated HANK model predicts a 45% smaller fiscal multiplier of temporary UI extensions; and a 40% weaker effect of UI in reducing aggregate consumption volatility.
Presentations. SED Annual Meetings 2025*, Banco Central do Brasil*, IMF, University of California, Los Angeles*, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco*, FGV- EESP*, Insper*, PUC-Rio*, Bank of Canada*, European Central Bank*
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Financial Acceleration and Employment: A Regional Approach
Financial Acceleration and Employment: A Regional Approach
(with Michael Blank)
(with Michael Blank)
Abstract. How do firms shape the transmission of macroeconomic shocks and policy? Financial accelerator theories emphasize the role of firm-level financing frictions in amplifying the macroeconomic impact of aggregate shocks. While this literature generally focuses on capital investment, we consider how the effects of monetary shocks are amplified through links between financing frictions and labor demand. Under financial acceleration, firms reduce labor demand as financing constraints become more severe in response to adverse shocks, lowering labor income, and thereby aggregate demand. We empirically test this channel with a “micro-to-macro” approach based off the universe of US public firms. We first show that firms that ex ante appear to be relatively financially constrained contract employment more after a monetary tightening. We then assess the aggregate implications of this employment channel through a regional design. We construct measures of a given county’s exposure to public firms with differential financial constraints, and document that more exposed counties exhibit stronger employment declines following contractionary monetary shocks. Preliminary evidence suggests that within-county spillovers of constrained firms to the regional labor market are concentrated in non-tradable establishments, suggesting that interactions between aggregate demand and financial amplification through employment are operative.
Monetary Policy and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from Brazil
Monetary Policy and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from Brazil
(with Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez and Felipe Camelo)
(with Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez and Felipe Camelo)
Abstract. We study how monetary policy affects labor markets through both demand and supply channels. Our identification strategy leverages high frequency administrative micro data on worker flows and wages from Brazil with monetary policy surprises around Central Bank announcements. Most uniquely, we exploit Brazil's recent, once-in-a-generation labor reforms to identify how a decrease in real rigidities affects monetary policy transmission through labor markets. We make four main contributions. First, we causally quantify the effect of monetary policy on worker transitions in- and out-of employment. Second, we decompose separations into quits and layoffs to isolate supply-driven flows. Third, we estimate effects on firm labor demand, controlling for labor supply confounders. Fourth, we provide causal evidence of labor market reforms on the potency of monetary policy through both labor supply and labor demand channels.
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